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TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE
This year’s DoorKnock delegation traveled to
America fully aware that FTA talks were on hold. Secretary of State
Rice was clear in a recent visit to Cairo as was Secretary of Commerce
Gutierrez when he spoke at a gathering of 600 AmCham members. Their
message was the same: the time is not right. At first, I found this
remark more diplomatic than explanatory. But in America we learned
that the domestic political environment was unfavorable, and the
timing was indeed not right. That’s the benefit of DoorKnocks,
to both explain ourselves and understand where our counterparts
are coming from.
The mood in Washington is dominated by several concerns, not least
the fact that the House and a third of the Senate are up for re-election
this year. Add the situation in Iraq, that some claim is tantamount
to civil war. The US administration denies this, but presidential
popularity ratings are at an all-time low.
According to a senior Middle East expert, “Iraq is consuming
all the oxygen in Washington.” But the US-Iran conflict over
the latter’s nuclear ambitions was the cause for almost as
much consternation as Iraq. Then you have the lingering Palestinian
question with the Hamas win catching Washington surprisingly unaware.
They don’t know as yet where Hamas stands, and as Israeli elections
likewise loom, Palestine is once more on the back burner. The attitude
is wait and see.
All this contributes to Washington’s cumulative unease, and
the perception that Middle East conditions have gone from bad to
worse. But the coup de grace was the DP World debacle, an indication
that the US administration is not at its best. President Bush stuck
his neck out for the Dubai port deal and in doing so lost significant
political capital. A presidential veto was threatened until Bush’s
own party advised against it. Fortunately, Dubai gracefully withdrew
from the transaction.
Consequently, the US administration was unprepared to take on public
opinion and congress on the Egyptian FTA, lest it become –
in an election year – a domestic issue similar to DP World.
Middle East democratization is a hot topic in the US media and Egypt’s
political reform, as well as the US role in it, has been the target
of criticism and disagreement. Although Egypt has many friends in
Washington, the mainstream is unaware of our political reform efforts
in their greater context.
Public opinion places Egypt in a troublesome Middle East, without
a grasp of where we’re going. We tried with some small success
to explain our democratization efforts in terms of our particular
political history, how we’re undertaking a major transition
that will set the stage for Egypt’s future. It’s not a
matter of reform but of transformation, involving complex and often
sensitive issues that require substantial public debate. Although
Americans tend to want things done yesterday, political reform involving
constitutional and legislative amendment takes time.
Nevertheless, Egypt’s US relations remain strong – and
strategic – on many levels, including security, military and
economic affairs, with supporters in many quarters, such as congress,
the administration and advisory think tanks. We canvassed them all,
throughout 75 meetings with high-ranking policy makers, advisers
and media over a period of five days. As ever, our delegation’s
performance under pressure was outstanding and, across the board,
everyone raved about Egypt’s economic reform.
When it came to political reform, however, I was reminded of the
days when US officials told us, “you’re not committed
enough [to economic reform].” Now we hear the same thing with
regard to political reform – with one difference. There were
always specific economic recommendations for achieving a larger
goal whereas now there are concerns and critiques of particular
incidents ignoring the bigger picture.
As businessmen, we examined the cost /benefit of the FTA before
our trip and felt that too much was at risk. As it turns out, Washington
shares a similar concern. Once more, the DoorKnock served to clarify
important issues and foster better understanding of each other’s
economic and political circumstances.
Meanwhile, we have plenty of investment opportunities to pursue,
especially as a result of the QIZ and our economic reform policies.
One of the highlights of the DoorKnock was an investment conference
in New York. The turnout was excellent, as was the response. I’d
like to thank everyone who helped make this DoorKnock a success:
our superb AmCham staff, friends in Washington and the hardworking
members of our delegation. We believe that Egypt is on track –
both economically and politically – we’re optimistic and
intend to hold the course. This is the message the private sector
delivered both in Washington and New York.
TAHER HELMY
President, AmCham Egypt
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